One of the greatest justifications for the COGA Commission would be to address the realities of financial hardship being experienced by many presbyteries. Money — in short — is short and getting shorter.
Something has to change. As the Stated Clerk said, “The structure coming out of reunion is clearly devolving.”
Evidence of Devolving
Even casual observers of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) would know the current path is unsustainable. Whether it was urban legend or an actual calculation, the running line was, “The last Presbyterian will turn out the lights for the last time in 2056″ or something like that. Annual membership losses are measured in percentage points.
Also reflecting the non-sustainability of the current structure are the denomination’s finances. The devolving is shown in the lack of trust manifest in member giving. In the years since 1983, the proportion of restricted versus unrestricted giving has flipped — it used to be that more money was given unrestricted. Just for illustration purposes, look at this report of the Mission Program Receipts from the 218th General Assembly (General Assembly Mission Program Receipts — Actual Compared To Budget as of December 31, 2006) . If you follow the middle columns (unrestricted ytd actual; restricted ytd actual) down to the bottom of the page, receipts were:
Unrestricted: $31,114,105
Restricted: $77,947,107
Receipts have continued to decline. As Leslie Scanlon reported, coming to this Assembly from the GAMC is the proposed mission budget:
The council revised down the PC(USA)’s mission budget for 2010 — reducing it by $7.3 million, from $101 million to $93.8 million. That reflects more than $4 million less than had been expected in current revenue, and also about $3 million less drawn from reserves.
This piece by Peter Smith of the Courier-Journal tells the story of the financial struggles of the national church.
Those struggles trickle down. Money is not available to support presbyteries and synods also struggling.
Without some dramatic intervention and turn-around, it is far more likely that the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) will implode financially before it would explode over any given issue (ordination, marriage, Israel, whatever).
The Question for the COGA Commission: Large or Small?
Assuming it would be approved as proposed, the COGA Commission would have an enormous decision to make at the very start: go large or go small? Should it consolidate presbyteries as is proposed in Puerto Rico? Should it multiply presbyteries to make them smaller, more responsive, and independently accountable for their own survival?
Larger presbyteries and synods with fewer employed administrative staff might be sustainable. Smaller presbyteries with volunteers and/or part-time tent-making staff might be sustainable. But it would not be fair or well-received to go hybrid; that is, consolidate some synods and presbyteries while multiplying others. That would come across like the ultimate gerry-mandering of congressional districts.
It’s always dangerous to do this; however…just thinking, without committing: A commission may be the only realistic mechanism for dealing with the question. Not limited by time or other responsibilities, it could delve into the questions, problems, challenges, and opportunities that re-constituting would offer. It would afford flexibility and opportunity for experiments. Yes, it is fraught with potential problems; but what alternative? Eight days of a convened General Assembly is not the venue for an extended discussion. Elected and hired officials of OGA and GAMC would be conflicted out; they have too much vested interest in their own financial survival.
Still pondering: if the status quo is not sustainable, if the devolution is actively and rapidly in process, and if a commission is not the right mechanism for change; is there another better alternative out there?
Bob:
Can you imagine the per capita bill that that last Presbyterian in 2056 will have to pay before he turns off the lights?
Bob
Bob,
In the last reorganization in the early 70s, I have been told that the thinking was that a presbytery needed 20,000 members in order to have enough money to employ staff and implement programs. Today, over half of our presbyteries have less than 10,000 members. Thus, many presbyteries simply do not have the money to continue functioning the way we have been used to. We are going to have to get used to something new, whatever that might be.